讲座时间：2025年7月4日（周五）15：00-16：00

讲座地点：兴庆校区文管大楼674会议室

讲座嘉宾：Fengqing Chao博士

讲座主题：Estimating levels and trends in adult mortality rates in countries with high HIV prevalence from 1950 to 2023

讲座内容简介：Accurate monitoring of adult mortality in countries with a high HIV prevalence is essential for disease measurement and population estimation. However, this is challenging because most countries experiencing high HIV prevalence lack good civil vital registration systems. The existing sets of mortality estimates are based on standard demographic techniques and partially deterministic approaches, especially in countries with high HIV prevalence. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM) to estimate the levels and trends in sex-specific adult mortality 45q15 from 1950 to 2023. The BHM make use of extensive databases and allows information sharing across countries and periods. The effect of HIV prevalence on adult mortality was specifically modelled to capture the nonlinear pattern.

在HIV高流行国家中，准确评估成人死亡率对于疾病负担监测与人口估算至关重要。然而，这一工作面临诸多挑战，主要由于多数此类国家缺乏完善的出生死亡登记系统。目前已有的死亡率估计多基于标准的人口学方法和部分确定性方法，在HIV影响严重的背景下可能存在局限性。本研究构建了贝叶斯分层模型（Bayesian Hierarchical Models, BHM），用于估计1950至2023年间的性别分年龄成人死亡率指标的水平与变化趋势。该模型整合了大规模的死亡率数据库，并支持跨国家与跨时间的信息共享。模型中特别纳入了HIV流行率对成人死亡的影响机制，从而捕捉其非线性作用模式。

讲座嘉宾简介：Dr. Fengqing Chao is an Assistant Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Science at The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen). Dr. Chao received her Ph.D. from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore. She has been actively collaborating with United Nations Population Division and UNICEF since 2012. Since 2024, Dr. Chao has started to collaborate with the WHO Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research Department. She develops complex statistical models for sparse and noisy data for population indicators (e.g., sex ratio at birth, under-5 child mortality rate, adolescent mortality rate) across countries over time. She has several publications in PNAS, Lancet Global Health, PLoS ONE, and BMJ Global Health.

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